There has been quite a bit of talk by the usual talking heads from the mass media (who one must ignore totally and forever) but also by several “respected” alternative media channels as to what the changes in Russian military and security heads actually mean.
I have not bothered to comment because it is quite clear most of these people haven’t got a clue and are guesstimating by consuming all sorts of voluminous data points before they come to conclusions that begin to approach the usual “2+2 = purple” results.
The only one that has actually done some decent legwork and presented his case properly is Edward Slavsquat, here, though I don’t read him much and several of his other takes were meh, as far as I am concerned, but this one was decent.
If you want to avoid a long (but good) read, let me give you the TL;DR version:
Putin is simply doing what he has done his entire career. For the first 20 years or more it was mostly a game of avoiding pit traps, dead ends, and enemies, steadily and very patiently climbing the ladder of power until he managed to get to the top, then the change to a swift reduction in those enemies was executed at lightning speed in political terms, which is still a game of patience and careful calculation in real-time.
Once he had removed the worst threats he then set about improving things on a grander level, and genuinely trying to make things better for the common man too. Which inevitably means rooting out corruption. And by “rooting out corruption” I don’t mean making everyone as clean as a disinfected whistle, I mean ensuring that the people put in positions of government power are first of all effective at their given tasks, whatever these are, and secondly that whatever they get up to, the damage/theft/problems they create are essentially minor or relatively irrelevant in the greater scheme of things.
Shoigu was a dinosaur with the flexibility and imagination of an oil tanker, and regardless of if he was personally deeply corrupt or not, various of his underlings obviously were enriching themselves at the expense of the citizenry, which is why they have been arrested. Even if Shoigu were himself perfectly innocent of any wrongdoing, his having permitted such things to happen under his rule, whether by participation, laziness or stupidity, is enough to ensure he is put out to pasture at the very least, which is what has happened.
Putin is not going to change tack either. He has put people in place around him that generally are capable of streamlining and increasing efficiency, and it is an interminable, truly endless process in politics, which is why I have always understood that being “the big boss”, the “leader” chieftain, etc. is really a vicious pain in the ass and it does not generally interest me, nor has it ever. HOWEVER, if you get a guy with the kind of Sigma traits Vladimir Putin clearly has to become invested in running a country, then what the man has done is pretty much a classic path you can expect.
It is rare for a man of that psychology to get interested in leadership in my experience, they tend to be far more prone to wanting to be left alone to do what they want, how they want, when they want. Piss one off enough by preventing him to live that way, however, and you are going to have a formidable enemy on your hands that will be relentless until you and your obstacles have been swept away.
Personally I think it’s more than that which drives Putin. Some peculiarity of character that has made the game of politics attractive and interesting to him, quite aside from the individual perks of power he may get out of it, as I’m certain these are not primary motivators for him. It is a good thing that at all levels of examination one cares to look at, as a general overview, he seems to be genuinely concerned with providing an overall better situation for his citizens. While this may not ultimately be his true driving force, it is at the very least an effect of his peculiar character. Which is a lot more that can be said for pretty much almost every single politician in the West.
What is actually happening in Russia
There has been quite a bit of talk by the usual talking heads from the mass media (who one must ignore totally and forever) but also by several “respected” alternative media channels as to what the changes in Russian military and security heads actually mean.
I have not bothered to comment because it is quite clear most of these people haven’t got a clue and are guesstimating by consuming all sorts of voluminous data points before they come to conclusions that begin to approach the usual “2+2 = purple” results.
The only one that has actually done some decent legwork and presented his case properly is Edward Slavsquat, here, though I don’t read him much and several of his other takes were meh, as far as I am concerned, but this one was decent.
If you want to avoid a long (but good) read, let me give you the TL;DR version:
Putin is simply doing what he has done his entire career. For the first 20 years or more it was mostly a game of avoiding pit traps, dead ends, and enemies, steadily and very patiently climbing the ladder of power until he managed to get to the top, then the change to a swift reduction in those enemies was executed at lightning speed in political terms, which is still a game of patience and careful calculation in real-time.
Once he had removed the worst threats he then set about improving things on a grander level, and genuinely trying to make things better for the common man too. Which inevitably means rooting out corruption. And by “rooting out corruption” I don’t mean making everyone as clean as a disinfected whistle, I mean ensuring that the people put in positions of government power are first of all effective at their given tasks, whatever these are, and secondly that whatever they get up to, the damage/theft/problems they create are essentially minor or relatively irrelevant in the greater scheme of things.
Shoigu was a dinosaur with the flexibility and imagination of an oil tanker, and regardless of if he was personally deeply corrupt or not, various of his underlings obviously were enriching themselves at the expense of the citizenry, which is why they have been arrested. Even if Shoigu were himself perfectly innocent of any wrongdoing, his having permitted such things to happen under his rule, whether by participation, laziness or stupidity, is enough to ensure he is put out to pasture at the very least, which is what has happened.
Putin is not going to change tack either. He has put people in place around him that generally are capable of streamlining and increasing efficiency, and it is an interminable, truly endless process in politics, which is why I have always understood that being “the big boss”, the “leader” chieftain, etc. is really a vicious pain in the ass and it does not generally interest me, nor has it ever. HOWEVER, if you get a guy with the kind of Sigma traits Vladimir Putin clearly has to become invested in running a country, then what the man has done is pretty much a classic path you can expect.
It is rare for a man of that psychology to get interested in leadership in my experience, they tend to be far more prone to wanting to be left alone to do what they want, how they want, when they want. Piss one off enough by preventing him to live that way, however, and you are going to have a formidable enemy on your hands that will be relentless until you and your obstacles have been swept away.
Personally I think it’s more than that which drives Putin. Some peculiarity of character that has made the game of politics attractive and interesting to him, quite aside from the individual perks of power he may get out of it, as I’m certain these are not primary motivators for him. It is a good thing that at all levels of examination one cares to look at, as a general overview, he seems to be genuinely concerned with providing an overall better situation for his citizens. While this may not ultimately be his true driving force, it is at the very least an effect of his peculiar character. Which is a lot more that can be said for pretty much almost every single politician in the West.
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